Processed it along with historical data to give a probability of occurance that now has become fact. NAW, that was the last contest at Halloween!
The trade deficeit and government spending is way out of control. An extravagent lifestyle that feeds the economic engine of the world can not be sustained on a mountain of debt.
The foreign investor awaits the rise in interest rates and will reinvest in those countries who will give him a better return, while the rise in interest rates will kill the economic engine already taped out in debt.
As companies try to put lipstick on the pig, capitol for growth will lessen and layoffs will continue putting more pressure on the economy.
The dollar will fall to try and retain some foreign investment but it will be too late as the herd mentality switches to other currencies.
Which I may add depends on the manufacture of parts for our weapon systems by foreign governments.
Just about the time I started investing in Gold, I seem to remember the British Government selling off a sizeable chunk of its physical.
With the recent surge in the price Oh well, as they say I had to drop offline to check out of my hotel and move into my apartment about Noon, so I missed the juicy finish.
It seems I moved into a "Hot Spot" originating in a mobile home park across the cemetary from me. It may be the only cemetary with wireless coverage in existence.
I don't need a cable modem or a router, as my wireless card picks them up fine. By not buying all the other gear, I saved about half an ounce!
OK, I'm stalling, sooooo. The answer to this question lies in the information age itself. Countless years of chicanery and deceit have passed while TPTB hoarded and manipulated entire societies out of their gold and silver reserves.
When it became more difficult to wangle the masses out of their precious goods, gold was debased and defiled like a social outcast.
During that time the price was driven so constanly low that only a fool would consider buying it, and only a genius would know to save it.
Well, history rhymes once again, as the geniuses who have tended the eternal golden flame passed along the secret of the noble metal, as well.
Unlike ages past, the "Information Age" bestowed upon the keepers the power to proclaim their secret from the moutaintops to all men rich and poor.
Their new messaging technology granted the capability of storing and repeating the message over and over for the slow to comprehend. Along came a bretheren of believers who linked arms and NICs to commune in the castle of Sir MK, and united many other castles in honoring the "old ways".
As the currencies each continued to debase each other in turn like the tissues from which they were fashioned , respect for them fell to cesspool depths.
Great fortunes changed hands and new homage was born for the golden relic of antiquity. Finally, as the beauty and rarity of the noble gold became apparent to all, a great cry went out across the planet.
Back to the Future of It! Nowadays, mosst still lissten to tricksy Saruman spell-voices and pay little attention to world-matters, but those voices will soon be silenced by the thunder of It's ascent.
Well, we did, but we won't tell, it'd ruin the Contesst! Gandalf the White wrote: Lately I've noticed that the Nikkei stock average has been very volatile, but even more interesting, the price of gold in NY seems to go up strongly on days following a big rise in the Nikkei no I haven't made a chart.
I still believe that before gold really takes off as if it hasn't already! And before that can happen, Japan and ASIA will have to get tired of inflation in their own countries and thus stop buying dollars and dumping their own currencies.
In other words, they will eventually be forced to export their inflation to the US. The fact that Japan is going to bail out some major banks is highly inflationary since the bad debts will likely be monetized.
And they've been printing Yen at an accelerated pace for a while now and buying a lot of dollars with it. But now it seems that some of the excess Yen that is floating around is finding it's way into the stock market, failed banks, and into other things besides the US dollar.
I think the gold-bolting will be starting at today. COMEX shorts never try to short-cover in their positions.
According to my astronomical calculations, Dec. Yes, because during nearly one year, gold price is suppressed artificially by the Gold Common-Cartel, very enormous energy of buying gold is accumulated in the market.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest? Rather difficult that we see it if now we see 17 times that amount.
Please tell me if you think this part of my prediction is wrong because then I'll sell all my gold upon the expiry of the contest.
Mitsui is losing his short-positions. I think it is foundamentary wrong to take short-positions in a secular bull-market.
This is the article: The listing of these securities is an initiative of the World Gold Council. I wonder if a gold bull market is compatable with the rising stock market and the dollar bear market rallies.
If the PTB keep trumpeting the "recovery" and people throw more money at the dow, will this hurt the POG at least in the short term?
Gold does seem to be doing well enough despite all wonderful recovery talk I hear everyday on the news. Is the POG still being managed, or is it free?
I have learned what little I know about economics and gold from lurking on the forums. Be patient with me and tolerate my ignorance as I "walk the golden trail" This is my wife's State Teachers Retirement policy with spouse me and two kids in school.
I suppose a lot of folks will be seeing big hikes but I'm sure that won't derail the rebounding economy if we can remortgage the house and possibly indenture the kids.
Another thought, I want to express my heartfelt thanks to the fine folks who have been offering gold at firesale prices these past few years.
I would advise them, however, that this is not a good business model for an enterprise wishing to prosper. Cheers to all Boilermaker.
The day I see a new Fed chairman and Treasury Secretary making a serious attempt to clean up the US financial system is the day I sell all my gold.
Since I see no likelihood of this happening until things become absolutely dire, I will continue to hold and gold will simply keep rising on a huge tide of fiat paper that will also inflate the stock market.
Obviously, the general public will never buy gold for the right reasons, but may well buy it for the wrong reasons. How about the following?
Who would have said that there was a tech bull in dollars but not in another currency. We actually have a bear market in gold in Rand.
Why is gold a problem? It's only a problem in S Africa. The gold bull market hasn't even started yet, so you and you and you and you and you etc.
Consumers are feeling wealthy and choosing to save their excess cash.. The US needs savings and if people choose to save some of it in gold rather than stocks, what's the harm in a bit of portfolio diversification.
We've had too much Keynesian anti-savings policy from previous governments, and I think we should salute Dubya's promotion of prudent savings behaviour.
You paid a premium for new economy dot-coms because they could grow earnings faster than the old economy stocks. Now jewelry demand due to the wealth effect is expanding margins in the gold sector, so these are the stocks that should command higher PEs.
They're just like any other business, only they're growing earnings faster. How can a rising gold price be bad for the US if it increases the national wealth?
How's my sales pitch? Greetings Sir Rider of the Waves! I was giving the whole hyperinflation issue some thought over the weekend and came to the conclusion that the inevitable outcome will be universal healthcare.
In two or three years after comparable annual rises in the cost of health "insurance" , the baby boom generation will clammor for relief from the incessant cost increases.
To that end, the coming inlfation plays into the hands of the statists. Applied Digital Solutions should have the implantable chips ready by then so that everyone can be properly tagged.
You may want to check out Medical Savings Accounts as an alternative to traditional health insurance although you may have to set up your own small business to particiapte in the MSA program.
Due in large part to the continued deterioration of the government fiat system and reckless expansion of the government consuming fiat just as quick as it prints it.
Sure, add little hard savings by imperial slaves, demands for more entitlements and the mass of aging slaves with fewer slaves to support them.
Like the Titanic the economy is, it floods slower at first, then faster and faster. The water flowing over the earth dam is cutting into the structure more by the minute.
My wife took a leave of abscence from her high school teaching job. Little wonder school and state budgets are red inking big time.
We also have skyrocketing property taxes, water rates and a raft of other utilities leaping higher. This has to translate to less consumer spending.
The state sales tax collections keep falling which belies the rosy economic reporting being given. My economic forecast is for dire straits for most all non-gold owners.
BTW, did anybody see last night on the evening news the story about the missile attack on the convoy in Iraq delivering new Iraqi dinar currency?
I think I'll give CPM another call. It is mathematically impossible for a fiat currency to be both a transaction currency and a store of wealth.
What we are witnessing is the realization of this fact by the rest of the world. What will be the event to break this rally in gold whenever that may occur.
Based on all that I can read the structural problems with the Dollar indicates a huge upside in the value of gold BUT nothing goes up forever.
Free Gold does go up forever in nominal terms relative to fiat currencies. It may be beneficial to take a walk down the gold trail for a while to get a complete understanding of this concept.
It took me many trips down the trail to do so. All the technical charts are screaming for an explosion about right now.
Or you could be optomistic, as my friend commented this morning. What you don't understand is that the govt.
You are invited to visit now, often. What does that mean? Now there is a new kid on the block,having stated its pro Gold stance. This new competitor euro forced the old guy to keep up or lose its reserve status.
No,I never bought the overbought argument in a market short t and being suppressed since decades. Surely,it needs some kind of agreement like taking the t shorts off the books of exposed US?
This is not schizophren if you think about it. Yes, paper Gold is still being manipulated'still in the interest of the currency. The interest being now just buying a bit more time.
This the title of an article from Alex Wallenwein going the rounds at the moment. Basically dividing the total number of dollars by the US gold reserves.
My mind was boggled that someone should write an article with such an elementary arithmetic mistake in it! Could they Giants be telling the Sheeple something?
Using "almighty" in terms of the dollar seems to be a huge misnomer. Now almighty gold- that's more like it. We're one derivative neutron bomb away.
THAT must stand for "Christmas" present! Can anyone else read this chart and correct me, if I have errored? Where is Sir Soc when you need him? This year do what Santa's doing.
Give the gift of Gold. The gift that keeps on giving year after year. Avoid the holiday rush. Browse leisurely through our large selection of high quality gold jewelry items, click on the perfect gift and put the Ho!
Find the same high standards of quality, attention to detail and old-world service at USAGOLD-Jewelry that you have grown accustomed to as a client on the brokerage side of the firm.
The Perfect Gift this Season! Gold did not keep up today, but at least bettered yesterday's gain. But Gresham's Law give's fiat a chance to be a transaction currency until the bitter end anyway.
Maybe A Giant or Two Could be interest rates will go up as the dollar goes down. Sometimes, like today, it seems that the shorts are capping the price of gold out of habit rather than conviction.
Of course, the dam is made out of paper. And where is the government going to get the paper to print those "fingers"? That lured money away from gold and into interest-bearing paper investments.
Higher interest rates also tempted gold miners to sell future production. This increased the supply of gold on the market although a lot of it was "paper" gold.
Togerther, those factors reversed the rising tide of gold. Things are different now. Gold miners are still trying to get out from under the forward sales thay made previously.
But more importantly, with the current sad state of consumer, corporate, and government finances debt , there is no possible way that the economy could tolerate even moderatley higher interest rates at this time or at any time in the near foreseeable future.
The employment picture and wages will have to improve markedly before there is any possible interest rate hike. In the meantime, the price of gold is going to be largely determined by the acts of foreigners, not by Americans.
Why such a low guess? Well there is a fair chance that it could get hammered down again for a time, and besides, I don't like being in crowds.
I am going to guess NO, and it is really only a guess because almost anything is possible. Sorry, out feasting with the other members of the Symposium.
On the latter point, nothing has changed. I haven't been posting because there was nothing to add to my previous analysis. Nor did I ever regard as having any major significance.
The key level was and as soon as we broke that, we got the signal for a major bull market. Now that seems to have fallen, the Cartel will doubtless fall back to and start spinning lots of ridiculous stories about how gold is at the end of its run, since this was the high.
Like all the other feeble efforts to call the top all the way from , this will be revealed as so much BS. If I had to go on TV and make a prognosis, I'd say that I expect gold to make a near-term high in the low s, pull back to and then build up another trading range that will set it up for an assault on As for the timing of the move from to - I'm completely clueless.
Nearly a year ago when gold was down at , I asked one of my TA gurus what he thought about gold and he replied: If you think about it, the way to take the wind out of gold's sails is to push it up there in short order.
The precious metals gained again on a weakening US dollar though some attribute the gains to gold producer Barrick statements that they will reduce their hedgebook to zero.
However, the real story in gold is the plunging US dollar as foreigners bail out of US investments. The dollar remains overvalued and is likely to hit lower lows.
The soaring current account and budget deficits have both foreign and domestic investors "running for the hills". As a result the precious metals provided prudent investors with a nice layer of "portfolio insurance".
IF I am reading him correctly. HEY, even Wizards dream too! Please, tell me how to close 16 moz of forwarded gold, when the hedge book was already under water to the tune of 1.
We're now talking plus POG and the hedge book of ABX may have reached stratopherical dimensions - oh, on the wrong side of the ledger.
This may mean these geniuses are finding it somewhat difficult to explain their premium option "excercises" to their shareholders, as the share price was lagging badly any non-hedger!
In an interview with Reuters, Barrick chief executive Greg Wilkins said the world's third biggest gold miner would, over time, empty its forward sales book -- the biggest in the gold business -- although it was in no rush, or under any pressure, to get rid of it.
We aren't qualifying the policy. We are adopting truly a no-hedging policy," Wilkins said. Munk said then that the Toronto-based firm's commitment to hedging was a thing of the past.
As promised, the firm also posted a formal no-hedging policy statement on its Web site on Tuesday. Tells of why, but mum on how Wilkins, who took the helm at Barrick in February, said he had spent the last eight to nine months speaking to investors and hearing their concerns about the firm's hedge book, which critics say reduces the firm's exposure to rising gold prices.
Currently weighing in at 16 million ounces of gold, Barrick has reduced the hedge book from a peak of 24 million ounces 18 months ago.
But it remains far fatter than the hedge programs of rivals Newmont Mining Corp. The share prices of both Newmont and Placer have outperformed Barrick's this year as bullion has risen.
Analysts said it was crucial to know how Barrick plans to cut back its hedge positions, as it could be expensive if the gold price continues to rise.
But Wilkins declined to provide details, saying only that many options were being considered. Some analysts said Barrick had woken up too late in the gold cycle to change a policy that has been bitterly attacked by anti-hedging groups since the bullion price began rising in But there was also praise for Barrick.
But hindsight is and it's the same hedge book that has been very successful for them throughout the last two decades," Hodaly said.
Long time investors will also remember that survival - as nice as it may sound - is only part of the equation. In times of a gold bull market, they just might expect more of a performance; At least more than sub average Maybe some of you here have been shareholders in the oldest US gold mining company - Homestake?
I have and have never forgiven these predators to take 'em over for scratch! Shame on ABX - a company, which could have become great on its own merits - instead, it chose to defile its product for a short term gain!
Simple and quick question I don't get it. Remember Ashanti and Cambior? What's different this time around? Where is the "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis" in all its sordid manifestations?
My spies tell me that if Congress had to abide by the accounting rules of Sarbines-Oxley, the current budget deficit would be about 1. Yes, Indeed, how come the margin calls are still not triggered?
Well, according to Dietmar's work - and a bit of my own - we feel that POG may be the ultimate trigger. Ha, though what do I know? This might also only be true, if the counterparty s are purely US dollar denominated - as in JPM or GS -, though overall you may have spot deferred hedges as long as you are liquid.
If not, try to defer a margin call! Gold in the ground is great - so is next years great soy bean crop - and as long as you don't get called on the real McCoy -NOW - or tide over by paying up!
Perhaps they have been hung out to dry. A mining company is prey to the bullion banks due to the ultimate backstops Shareholders will get screwed of course ala ENRON et al but the executives will continue to live large.
ABX made it public having 1. In the latest Qu. At POG or even think , who really cares about their 87 moz of deep storage gold?
I want to chew my beans now and won't be 'deferring' starvation until my premium supplier choses to deliver at his discretion!
Make mine physical GOLD. What a bunch of scumbags. It must be hell trying to rig today's markets. Like keeping the tide from coming in or out.
Yesterday the economic news said "happy days are here again" and everyone dutifully piled into shares. It's hard to keep all the folks fooled all the time.
Today the economy did not shout a booming message and the shares got soggy. Who the hell is running this game anyway? Can't they be consistent?
We need more good news to keep this pig flying. A little more lipstick please. Thanks again, Jon for your great efforts - cb2.
As per my un- educated guess ABX will be under water. Though the GOLD won't stop there and as the derivative implosions may start at this juncture - I'll believe that even POG will be a non event in Gold will regain its rightful place - "as the only currency, which can't be debased" thanks to John Embry - as the only true value!
Anyone not insiders have an idea what's going on with Chrystallex? They were rising side by side with Canyon and the other juniors right until Thanksgiving.
Did the market dislike a couple of their latest alliances? Smeagol thanks all at the Castle for this treat! There will be an absolute run to for gold per ounce during The world is tired of fiat and before gold gives up it will surpass History always repeats itself.
Any terrorist attack in America will push it over in We have been told its coming. I was wondering how best to sell non-collectible coins in the future.
I am not asking for company specifics that might infringe on the hospitality of CPM, just for general tips. Can you get close to the "sell price" shown at the big POG quote sites, say, by selling coins locally in your town?
Is the paperwork shipped with your coins important to retain as some sort of proof, or are the coins themselves sufficient? I received some silver coins recently in plastic sheets; does removing them from the sheets reduce their value?
Assuming you keep them from tarnishing. Sorry if these are naive questions, but I have just been buying for the past year, never selling!
Dear Remarx, We do buy back coins in any amount from our clientele. Please call your account representative for current prices. Our telephone recording sometimes gives people the wrong impression.
We advertise all over the United States and people have called us in the past from all over the United States to sell class rings, spoons, jewelry, gold coins -- you name it.
We are in the investment business so we send those inquiries to the local coin shop, and the phone message is designed to allay those calls.
If we didn't do it that way, we would be inundated with phone calls from sellers of scrap. That's not our business. At the same time, we welcome working with our clientele and I hope this clears your confusion in this regard.
Gold as a currency without liability has these charlatans shaking in fear. Thanks for tremendous effort. Your daily reports are outstanding and simply Another very good reason to do business with MK and company.
However, that assumes that things drift along more or less as they have done in the past couple of years. Well, not much except realisation and mood!
Similarly there is now little doubt in the minds of the many that gold is not the "has-been" that it was thought to be a few years ago.
This trend has been gathering strength and is manifest by the concavity in the POG versus Time curve for the last few years the trend is not linear, but is concave upwards.
Thus POG is likely to change more rapidly in the coming year than in the past few years. No wonder the gold bugs in America are cheering!
Good luck to you all. Have to say it isn't the same in Australia due to the increase in our dollar. Today I can see the reason Black Blade was always pushing the insurance angle of gold.
Think it must be time for a holiday in the States. Any ideas on how to transport gold out of Australia? Cancel insurance and watch the fees go down, chargin is one thing collectin is another.
We probably had better medical care before the advent of insurance. Informed opinion it appears. You asked -- "I received some silver coins recently in plastic sheets; does removing them from the sheets reduce their value?
Even coins that were purched in a "flip" should be keep in the plastic! IF you want to see a grown collector cry, show them a rare coin that you have just given a polished shine!
Potter, I can not invision the thought. Can you provide a hint? I believe as most people on this forum that Gold is in the beginning of a muli-year Bull run.
The dollar is one sick puppy and as foreign investment continues to leave the U. I hope it stays on the present trend line and climbs up nice and slow, so all on this forum can continue to accumulate.
Sorry, should have asked my CPM rep first! Not that I want to sell any back now. Thanks for answering what was probably a silly question about the plastic.
I wasn't talking about cleaning collector coins, just new eagles and maples. Now, can anybody tell me about transporting coins to Canada from the US?
Maple Leaves are 0. SOME buyers will deduct at least a dollar or two for such a hairline scratch!!! Keep them in the TUBE or flip and do not consider even thinking about shining them!
My friends grandfather has told me that ever once in a while someone will bring in a slab to sell,and these people have removed original coin and replaced it with lower grade coin.
These people than reseal the slab. He said some of these people are masters of their craft. If you buy slabs buy from reputable dealers.
So, Barrick is giving up hedging. Is this a company responding to the demands of their shareholders or a company that is quietly changing course, like a supertanker?
If we take it that ABX does have a ticking time bomb hidden in its accounts then how can it respond? It can't respond openly and it can't terminate its derivatives.
Presumably it will continue to openly sell into the market at the highs and look to increasing its gold reserves and production. Buying into elephants, such as Sukhoi Log, will be the only way that ABX can increase its size to overcome the drag imposed by its derivative position.
This nugget collection was carried in a gold colored "gun case" you know the type that has the cut-out holes in foam, to hold the items in place.
The four Goldbugs, were interested in showing this collection to a number of Jr. Miners that were listed on the Vancouver Exchange and thought that they would drop by a Gold Convention that was in Vancouver BC at the same time.
He had the collection professionally photographed and had two copies of the "stamped" photo. He insisted on stopping at the US Customs Office and "declaring" the collection.
He showed them the collection, and gave them a photo of it, asking for a receipt of "export". IT was very lucky that he did.
Upon collection of the forms, the Inspector requested the Limo keys and instructed two other Officers to search the vehicle. Opened it up and ask, "What is this worth?
At that, the former CHIP smiled as he presented the export receipt and photo of the collection to the Officer and said "not a problem"!
Gandalf, all I can say is: I had no idea. We'll be in for a few more bottles mind you, when the Invisible Hand wins the price guessing competition!
As if the dollar is looking at the euro, and As if the dollar is suggesting to throw away any kind of currency-stability and go I leave the interpetation of this euro-stance to the readers.
And it is fine with me that nobody in the dollar camp sees any Gold-connection in the euro-concept! Quite normal, because the dollar-system has already dis-connected from Gold.
As long as we remain in the economical desert and the debt-lion is must be debt-powered, the euro only needs to outrun the dollar by 1 nanometer.
BTW - latest article of contraryinvestor has some very fine, balanced insights - a must study. This bull's running parabolic in The funnymentals can longer be denied.
Not even by Barrick The damned thing is going up. Miniscule gold stock market caps and sellable bullion will severely limit available seating.
This ticket's gonna be pricey The juggernaut of fiat debasement is now unstoppable. The king of tangibles will soon be visiting the Oort cloud.
Keeps his real targets to himself so as not to be perceived as crazy The Blade god bless him posts less cause his work's been done. The trend's on cruise and he knows it.
Greenie banged Galt's creator. He's gonna shrug and put Au back in it's place. Remember what he told Ron Paul: No cheering in the streets.
No oil to pay for it all. This can only end badly Another bench warmer who walked the plank for the Clinton-Rubin lets-grease-the-pig-pay-for-it-later scamola.
The emptying of western vaults will be the REAL scandal. Portugal, Holland, Belgium, England et al had prison sex too. The hall of shame awaits you Rising sun will soon realise the folly of shorting the yen.
Shotgun marriage to evolving sino-russian-arab economic axis of evil? I bought 2 more ozs instead of paying my rent!
Calling for a 1. That will never do,where's this free gold,that would seem to be a less divisive safe haven.
From December 5, the State Bank of Vietnam will sell sufficient US dollars at official exchange rate for banks and companies who already have had gold import quota to import gold stabilizing gold prices on the domestic market.
Quantity of gold allowed to import under licenses granted by the State Bank is eight tonnes. An official from the State Bank of Vietnam said supplying foreign currencies to cover imports by the commercial banks is normal and smooth.
Experts calculates if bank supply sufficient dollars to buy gold at exchange rate of VND15, per dollar as Vietcombank's selling rate on Dec.
The Sun, that favourite rag of the common masses in Britain, famous for its' Page 3 Girls has a small article today as follows Small investors are to get a simple way of speculating on gold prices.
Punting the "yellow metal", as it is is called, is popular with City professionals. But they use complex financial means - to avoid physically holding gold bars- which are often beyond the reach of ordinary folk.
Now a company whose share price is linked to gold prices is listing on the stock market. Managing Director Simon Village said the precious metal will be purchased aand stored on clients' behalf.
With the market turmoil, gold has been a good way to diversify. An old City adage says that, when private investors are about to get on board, it's time for the professionals to get off.
Is this launch a sign that the booming gold market is about to turn? Guess which team the Sun bats for? Have I misunderstood the reality of things or is this article blatantly incorrect?
Frankly, I doubt many UK investors will do very much, particularly since they will be sacrificing much of their liquid assets to the great god of rising mortgage rates in the near future.
Indian demand is a better bet. I think the cabal will do what they can to contain the price as long as they can.
Got to clear those short postions. Just a guess, all in MVHO. I read your cross-border story with great interest, but was surprised at the change from the dispassionate 3rd person recounting to the insertion of a 'we'.
Hope you didn't ruin the pants as well! I tried out your advice with a tube of maple leaves last night, but, frankly, while the coins stayed beautifully intact while I passed them from one hand to another, the sensory input was sadly missing - no clink!
This may be true eventually, but at what price? At some stage, there will be a decoupling of the paper and physical price of gold when there is the realization that there is not enough physical to satisfy the paper demand.
At this point, the price of physical will go 'too da moon', but the paper price, rather than following it, will revert to its intrinsic value - which is zero.
It will be shown to be no longer 'as good as gold'. If that were going to happen, we would already have seen it. The open interest is just going to keep on growing until it is the longs selling at a discount to physical which causes it to decline.
There are some who cannot believe this because of all the margin requirement to maintain the short position, not to mention the potential loss for the bullion banks holding that position.
But it really depends on who the banks are holding that position for - if it is someone who has the capability of 'printing' as many FRNs as necessary, there is no problem.
All this to extend the dollar timeline. This is why almost everyone here is holding physical - all the other paper games we may play and talk about are merely a means to get more FRNs or whatever paper is used locally to get more physical.
And the paper game may burn up any day. Gold - let's get physical! Spare a thought for those of us gold bugs in SA who are still waiting for the gold bull to start As my first post here, I'd just like to say thanks to all for the information that has been posted here.
It has helped tremendously with my understanding of the markets and economies. It is almost inevitable, maybe certain, possibly compulsory, conceivably unavoidable, perchance absolute, perhaps assured, supposedly beyond doubt, essentially categorical, and fundamentally cocksure to happen.
The gold bull has started. It's the denomination of the asset in USD that is killing the goose. Przystup, a research fellow at the National Defense University, wrote recently.
Beyond the economics and the diplomacy, something else is going on. China has the allure of the new. A new affinity is developing between the once feared China and the rest of Asia.
Karim Raslan, a Malaysian lawyer and writer who traveled to Washington recently on a Fulbright scholarship, put it this way.
The American "obsession" with terror seems tedious to Asians, he said. Not missing a beat, China fiddles while the west burns!
How fortunate to have this opportunity to exchange Rand paper promises for real wealth at such bargain prices. It seems like such a short time ago.
Late Tuesday GM also dropped tentative plans to sell its massive commercial mortgage arm, expressing confidence it can find ways to access new funding.
Commercial property still looks good to lenders who want to capitalize on the potential growth in payrolls. But if the bond market takes a look under the bed, it will find that there really are plenty of monsters down there.
First off, the economy is soaring. The third-quarter's growth rate of 8. Yes, the nation's key inflation gauge, the consumer price index, remains muted, but commodity prices are surging.
The Commodity Research Bureau Index of commodity prices has touched six-year highs; copper, a favorite early indicator among inflation hawks, is up 37 percent this year.
Meantime, the dollar has fallen sharply, sinking to its lowest level in three years against the yen despite a massive effort by Japanese authorities to keep the buck strong and its lowest levels ever against the euro.
Even the cheerleaders are finding it hard to believe that Sir AG won't raise the rates. Of course, if he can "outstare" the EMU, maybe they'll drop theirs first.
This article offers excellent long-term perspective on gold, currencies and changing world economic power. Thanks for the post, Sir B Boilermaker.
The central bankers who are pumping so much money like some insane beasts are in effect destroying the dollar now at velocity that is close to reaching a terminal level.
This in turn is pushing up the currencies of resource-based nations to extreme levels, one such country is South Africa. Why do I specifically mention this country?
South Africa has the largest Gold, Platinum, diamond and various other commodities reserves in the world. The Rand has appreciated at extreme pace to become what I have called the best performing currency in the word.
From taking 14 Rands to buy 1 dollar it now takes less than 7 Rands to do the same and this has taken place in approx 1 year. This has had the net effect of actually pushing the cost of South African mining companies through the roof.
Their costs are in rands, but they have to sell the product in depreciating dollars so they keep making less and less and they reaching a critical point, If the Rand should appreciate more say past the 6.
I keep rethinking my statement of a few days ago. Many authors are also noting that the huge multinationals are reporting profit growth that is more due to currency arbitrage than actual increases in sales and margin.
You caught me, the "Driver", rated as the most responsible person in the minds of the Officials! FX1 And just above yesterday's close.
To begin with, it's worth noting that in each case the fateful errors were made by talented and well-educated people. This includes John Law, by the way, who's gotten very bad, and I think, unfair, press ever since.
These men did not take the road to ruin frivolously, but rather as a measured response to a set of exigent circumstances.
The point is that governments are simply incapable of managing a money supply. The pressures and temptations always prove too great.
A very good historical account of historical fiat failures and correlation to today's economic woes. The previous post began with a table, whose tabs didn't copy.
When expaned, it compares the "fiat bubbles" by the damage done in their currency. Dollar falls to new lifetime low against euro By Jennifer Hughes Published: December 3 The Euro reached a new lifetime high against the dollar at 1.
No signs of letup in the dollar fall. As Sinclair says, "Stay the Course". Gee, I wonder where he first heard that?
Speaking ahead of a Thursday meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries he warned that the cartel would need to cut output again early next year to support the market.
Given the record low US savings, if the real estate bubble implodes into a hearty increase of foreclosures, watch for a return to the Hoovervilles and Reaganvilles that housed so many "new" street people during those post-bubble years.
It reminds me of a song I published and recorded during Ronnie's reign, if I may indulge our readers. President, I know you're working very hard, so I don't want too much time or too much pity.
I know you'll find a way to end these unemployment blues, 'Cause there're no more vacancies in "Tent City". Down under the freeway and across the USA We increase their population day by day But you tell us if we "stay the course", we'll all be OK.
Now the EDD has listings for a hundred jobs or so, and we all go out to find them every day. When we show up to interview we're 50, strong and two bucks an hour is all they're gonna pay Chorus - Now I've heard them say your programs have inflation on the run, and the interest rate is low as low can be.
And I know it's costing billions just to keep the Russians down, but you kept us down in San Jose for free. Chorus - So tell us Mr. President just what you're gonna do 'Cause the current situation isn't pretty.
Remember while you ride your horse The millions who must "Stay the course" When the only home they have is in "Tent City" -Chorus and out G'lox: This was recorded in San Jose during the Tent City situation in the winter of ' The ABC Cap Cities affiliate made a video of the locals in shelters and souplines and dubbed my recording over it on the 6: The following day, the producer one of their more senior guys was sacked and I saw him a week later on a weeny local independent station.
It doesn't usually pay to create politically critical art. Just ask the Mogambo Guru if he's bringing down a Wall St analyst's salary, and watch him turn a rainbow of colors while his blood pressure oscillates!
With all the new PM and commodity funds hitting the streets, I wonder how long it will be before somebody oversubscribes one a la the Producers and the commodity fund managers join the SM and MF in their rogue's gallery.
This has all the earmarkings of a scandal being born. Call CPM for a quote! The big contrast lies in the future: In late , the Fed was nearing the end of its policy accommodation, whereas today the central bank seems content to stay on hold for some time to come.
In late , the deficit was already on its way down; it had averaged 4. America's net private saving rate for consumers and businesses, combined -- net of depreciation currently stands at 5.
And that underscores one of the biggest imbalances of all -- the massive US current-account deficit that is required to attract such foreign capital.
In 2Q03, the US current-account deficit stood at 5. American households have led the charge in this regard. Even though nominal interest rates have fallen to year lows by some measures, debt service remains uncomfortably high when compared with the jobless recovery of the early s.
According to Federal Reserve statistics, interest expenses as a share of disposable personal income stood at A similar pattern is evident in a new broader gauge just released by the Fed -- a measure of "financial obligations," which also includes auto lease payments, home rental expenses, and homeowner insurance and property tax payments; this metric stood at The item that stands out besides the well known deficits, is the increasing amount of otherwise disposal income that is being required to service the ever growing mountain of debt.
Disturbingly as Roach points out the willingness of Americans to opt for higher level of leverage. Low IR have encouraged consumers to refinance and you the proceeds to 1 consolidate debts 2 support stock market investments replacing previously obtained margin debt on the high flyers such as Microsoft, Cisco - thus the day trader has turned out to be a 'long term investor' 3 Plunge additional investments in 'low priced!
The Feds are couting on increased inventory levels to keep the 'flamed' economy going. If this does not materialize the last stimuli tax rebates Q2 is the last "additional flame up" - Its doubtful the Whitehouse is going to "tolerate" higher IR in the months ahead - Lets stay tuned.
I bet you get lots of company around you now. The DMR has finally been updated a little late today. I wish I had more time to proof read the report but there was so much info coming in that I focused on the more interesting aspects of today's markets.
I think I will soon need a larger "hard drive" at this rate. Still, gold finished higher while the equities went wild only to finish nearly flat and the US dollar crumbled further against the euro.
I expect to see some odd analyses from dubious economic statistics tomorrow and the rest of the week, so trading could get quite "interesting" in the short term.
OpenDocument "South Africa's mining companies continued their white-knuckle ride into the red today as the rand soared to its highest level in almost four years".
Why is it that Mbeki's government is still clinging to relatively high interest rates and as such inviting vulture hedge funds to continue their Rand carry trade activities.
The SA economy, and not the mining sector alone is suffering the consequences. A country hit by economic and severe HIV malaise has not learned the lessons of Argentina, SE-Asia, Russia and other similar currency debacles - and the country won't be able to afford it any longer.
My guess is that a turning point may be nigh - and the carry trade specs will try to exit all at once - in particular when the POG starts to bound in leaps - even vs the SAR.
As a born contrarian, I would feel we're close to a reversal! Wouldn't wanna miss that show - cb2. You know how, in gest, when you say something you have to say, but don't want people to understand it so you cough when you are saying it, well, this morning, the young lad who gives the economy talk perhaps from WSJ sort of did that when he said, "dollar" and "reserve currency status" all in one sentence.
It was one of those things someone says that has great significance but because there was no ensuing explanation or discussion of that concept, the viewer was left going with the flow of conversation and not returning to what could have been a very promising discussion or concept.
As such, the idea of the US dollar as losing world reserve status has now been trial balooned on cnbc. Whether we hear of this from them again, I guess that is to be seen.
For those of us on hear, wasn't it about three years ago now maybe two that we all had these great in depth discussions about this? So, does that mean that mainstreem TV is about three years behind our discussions?
Kind of sad really. Powell warns Putin not to intervene in Georgia pipeline-corridor! In a possible easing of tensions between the world's top and fifth-largest economies, Chinese soybean buyers have indicated they would visit Chicago in two weeks and meet with grain companies to possibly sign purchase contracts.
The news was cheered by grains traders, who rallied soy futures at the Chicago Board of Trade in the hope that China, the world's top soy importer and the No.
Grains analyst Bill Nelson of A. Edwards said the visit would help "ease tensions between two major trading partners".
China however has yet to reschedule a visit by its wheat buyers to the United States that was also scrapped when Washington slapped import quotas on Chinese textiles.
GWB backing off the steel tarrifs eases some of the mounting trade tensions. Now let's get those Chinese undies back on the shelves.
Progress is seen as slow and bumpy, but most believe a turnaround has occurred and many look forward to a much stronger , they say.
What's still in the way is an underlying reluctance to hire permanently, Linda Paulk, president of Snelling Personnel Services, a national recruiter based in Dallas, sees a persistent reluctance by management to hire people full-time.
She noted an increase in orders during November, but it was a bumpy ride. He described the improvement as "a quick thaw" rather than a "roaring" rebound.
Many nurses have become the primary wage earners for their families. They no longer have the luxury of jumping to temporary agencies and taking shifts when they can get them.
We're in our third year of this, so you've got to believe this industry is going to come back. Thanks for the soybean news.
I was hoping they would come back and counting on it as the USA is the only source in quantity of the beans that China has to have.
They've been buying cotton and copper too and the last two weeks have seen huge corn export orders with "unknown" listed as their destination.
Friday spike in Kinross, Goldcorp, Glamis and other un-hedged gold producers was amazing. It is getting harder to hold USA Inc. WHY does the Evian website say abandonment of gold standard created monetary disorder?
The meetings of finance ministers in the s to some extent gave rise to the summits of the Heads of State and Government of the leading industrialised countries.
The Invisible Hand's created by the American decision to drop the gold standard. They subsequently decided to continue their discussions and invite their Japanese counterpart to join them.
In the months that followed, the five held meeting after meeting. The press started using the expression the "group of five" or "G5".
When it became his turn to chair, he suggested that this type of meeting be held by the Heads of State and Government. Today, the finance ministers of the G7 countries, assisted by their central bank governors, generally meet three times a year, including twice alongside the IMF and World Bank spring and autumn meetings.
They take stock of the development of the global economy and co-ordinate over current major financial problems. The Russian Federation is gradually being incorporated into these meetings.
We recognize that these changes will entail significant costs, in particular arising from debt owed to the IFIs. We are prepared to support a number of mechanisms to meet these costs recognizing the importance of maintaining an adequate concessional lending capacity by the IFIs: I would say abandonment of the gold Standard led to monetary disorder because it eliminated the possible redemption of fiat currencies in Gold from the country of origin.
With the later elimiination of Gold convertability from the Bretton Woods agreement, the world has since been on "The Dollar Standard" which has led to the massive build-up of dollar reserves 'round the world and the inflation in foreign currencies.
I don't want to ramble, so I'll finish with this: Elimination of the Gold Standard, was like cutting loose the anchor that helped to hold back the movement toward "created from nothing money.
The goldstandard was mentioned again. Span even answered that countries who wish to back their currency with Gold, can do so within IMF regulations.
The shocking effect of the 44 Trillion Debt, treasury-report, makes people a bit nervous. Mentionning the old goldstandard is saying as much as Euroland undere the present de facto French impulses, moves very slowly.
Good or bad habbit? If and when the dollar-implosion, causes the destructive hyper-price-inflation, compensating for the past 7 decades of mis-management ALL oil-trade will be settled in euro!
Whoever might have the control of what oil! The next 50 years are about the unwinding of the dollar-reserve and the euro, embracing Gold, as the only alternative.
It is the dollar-system that causes all misery and at a certain point, the euro-gold-alternative will take over for the better or the worse.
All official references made to the old goldstandard are part of the circumstantial evidence that deep dollar-doubt has been installed.
FOA was here, to explain us, what the role of the euro and Gold do play into this final dollar-demise. Bush got a short handshake and stiff smile from his loudest critic on arrival in Evian, the French spa on Lake Geneva hosting this year's summit of leading industrial democracies.
Chirac gave other leaders a much warmer welcome. On the summit's sidelines, a senior U. Colonna did not rule out a summit discussion about the U.
Bush's next moves could prove divisive. He has paved his way to Evian with proposals to track illegal shipments of weapons of mass destruction, pressure Iran and North Korea to curb nuclear programs and encourage Europeans to give up their opposition to genetically modified food.
Washington accuses Iran and North Korea of clandestinely developing atomic weapons. Bush and Putin discussed Tehran's nuclear program in St Petersburg but Russia says it will continue building a nuclear power plant in Iran.
Colonna said France thought Bush's plan for a global pact to seize illegal shipments of weapons was worth studying, but asked who would do this and under what legal authority.
EVIAN, France Reuters - The dollar's tumble on the currency markets forced its way onto the agenda at a G8 summit in France on Sunday when leaders said that exchange rates would be discussed the following day.
With stagnation or worse threatening some of the Group of Eight economies such as Germany, Japan and Italy, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi acknowledged that currencies would be discussed during Monday morning talks on economic prospects.
Berlusconi also referred to the possibility of a cut in interest rates, comments reflecting mounting belief that the European Central Bank could or should cut rates soon, a move that could tame the euro's surge versus the dollar.
But tomorrow we will talk about the global economy in which there will be discussion about recovery, unemployment, currencies, all aspects of the concerns we have today.
President Bush said in media interviews ahead of the summit, however, that Washington continued to back a strong dollar even if financial markets seemed to be putting a value on the currency which went against the grain of that policy.
For years, the US has been viewed as the most attractive region for global investors, but that distinction may be fading as concerns about the economic outlook, weak dollar and corporate governance issues damp the allure of US assets overseas.
A rush to the exit doors by overseas investors would be a huge blow to Wall Street and the fragile US economy. That's because overseas investors own about 45 per cent of all US government bonds, 35 per cent of corporate bonds and 12 per cent of equity holdings.
Bonds saw a drop in annual investment for the first time in over a decade last year and the trend could continue if the dollar remains in its slump.
Clark Winter, global investment strategist at Citigroup Private Bank, said overseas investors are finding alternatives to the US, which has long been viewed as the region to "park" money.
While the strengthening euro is attracting funds that may have otherwise gone to the dollar, there's also renewed interest in homeland repatriation.
Mr Winter said Brazil and Russia are two countries that are currently seeing a surge in repatriation of money.
For that to correct the DOW Industrials has to reach and exceed We are in the middle of 22 week cycle which is into it's 11 the week and the one of his primary ocsillators is now turning down There is another interesting corrollary that he discovered between the two markets He said he found it in the May newslwtter I'm developing avery high respect level for people that love math and apply it to data Forgive the repeater post below.
Every Chinese can trade and possess Gold bullion. Even if only a few may catch on at first Petersburg, from Evian - leaving before any tough questionaire regarding the Snow job on the reserve currency could unnerve diplomatists - to Cairo, from Eilat to other ME destinations and of course Kuwait As the international press is trying to cover and interpret every so slight facial expression, handshake or any body lingo of the president - while meeting friend and supposed foe with the surrogate arrogance of raw - though, past economic - power.
Other countries also love their Patria - even Zimbabweans, where oppression is rampant - though, who likes foreign interference on pretense of still missing WMD reasons?
The way New Jersey Gov. McGreevey D got over -- or, actually, around -- this very hurdle sums up the precarious condition of budgets now being crafted in almost every state capital.
But also a teetering one. The proliferation of accounting gimmicks in almost every state budget has raised concerns in finance, health care, education, mental health, public safety and anti-poverty efforts -- every endeavor that relies on state government It was just extremely aggressive," he said.
They're pushing the envelope. These gimmicks are basically off-the-balance-sheet debt. It's what Enron had. Looks like the ECB is going to cave.
I haven't checked the details from the Iraqi oil caving but it seems to me the planet it 'cow-towing' to Bush and the dollar machine.
Don't like it but unfortunately it might still be necessary to live with it. Global deflation for a while trying to get global reflation re-inacted.
Paragraph 22 pertains to liabilities contracts? If oil does decrease in price, do we expect gold to follow it down? UN food programme gears up for restarting distribution system - 29 May Islamic Conference has key role in ensuring peace, fighting terrorism - Annan - 28 May.
This would give Asian CB's another choice in currency reserves. President George Bush sought yesterday to halt the dollar's rapid decline on the foreign exchanges as the annual gathering of eight of the world's leading industrial nations prepared to discuss the fragile state of the global economy.
After two weeks in which the US currency has been shunned by investors convinced that the US was happy to see the dollar fall, Mr Bush said the recent weakening ran counter to his administration's strong dollar policy.
It's true that the value of the dollar is falling, which is against our policy," Mr Bush said in an interview with Russia's Rossiya TV channel.
Mr Bush, backed by Tony Blair, has insisted that this morning's session of the G8 summit in Evian should focus on the risk that slow growth in the west could trigger a period of deflation.
More than anything else, the decoupling of bonds and stocks was the main signal that deflation had become a serious threat. The last time a major decoupling of bonds and stocks had occurred was during the deflationary s.
If you're around can you clarify something for me? I'm trying to conceptualize what it would take on the part of ECB to turn the tide of capital going into the euro in terms of lowering its interest rates -- assuming of course that the ECB finds it in Europe's best interest at the moment to attempt stemming the tide, something I'm not totally sure of.
But looking for a starting point At the ECB site, they list the following interest rates: Thanks to Town Crier Randy for suggesting posts of Haiku the Japanese syllable "snapshot" of gold.
Though it's true that the dollar is only one of a great many influences on POG, it's changing perception and transient forms, this little poem tells how the U.
Paper printing storm, Dollars flutter down, up, down. Who will catch them? Who would've caught them? The ECB may cut its rate by half a percentage point to 2 percent when policy makers meet in Frankfurt on Thursday, according to a majority of the 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The Bank of England may keep its rate at 3. Sir MK - it looks like a half percentage point drop is anticipated. What a marvellous orchestra-orchestration!
Long live the US trade-deficit. A deadly cycle trap indeed! Maintain financial asset values The orchestration of the financials are evidence for the gravity of the global situation.
In the mean time, US's internal manufacturing sector keeps on weakening. All those efforts to maintain the dollar-reserve-system, keeps the US shielded from true price inflation!
We watch with understanding, do we? Needless to repeat that almost zero IRs change nothing on the structural "illiquidity" in wich global economy has landed!
Zero IR rates are doing much more harm to the coagulating economies. More so in Euroland than elsewhere. Income from savings has dramatically declined.
Big savers are also big consumers. They are supposed to keep on consuming when prices decline. Economists are trapped in their "growth-obsession" and the financial hullabaloo is pulling the wool over their faces.
Consumers are not stupid and follow their intuitive economic reflexes. Zero IRs makes them more suspicious.
Coagulation thrombosis as the opposite of liquidy fluidness!!! We cannot afford this anymore, thanks to the enormous build up of Bad Debts.
High degree of saturation Producers and consumers will go increasingly out of sync. Up until price inflation comes up and evolves into hyper-inflation!
The present status quo is simply a postponement of many executions. Clap, clap, clap, bravo meastro Couldn't have said it any better than that.
It's going to be a lot worse than people think the longer these guys, that are supposed to know what they are doing, continue doing what they are doing.
Yeap pushing on a string Hear ye hear ye. And when the s Cause I'll also want to know the whys, and what for as surely the children of this world will also want to know.
Yeah, and I support the Easter Bunny. Who the hell is he kidding? What is there to back up the US dollar?
ECB will cut interest rates but so will the Fed. Now we have a situation of "good cop-bad cop" as Dubya says he favors a "strong dollar" while Treasury Secretary favors a "fair market price" dollar.
There's only one way for this to end and that's with a weaker-much weaker US dollar. Looking across the pond at Evian I see "the emperor wears no clothes".
I know that politicians by their very nature are morons it doesn't matter what political party but this is unbelievable.
Holsters with two SW tucked in'em. Slay them fish BB. Pack some powder 2, cause thats the way they fish around these waters. Got Gold, chart looks like it's on life support.
Funny how when they have meetings like the G8 everything turns to normal Do you notice how the sharks ah sorry , forex, guys are now trying to hammer the Euro for profit?
I mean give me a break, strong dalla and now trash the euro is the mode operandi. Don't need to work no more just become a currency trader.
Gold, whats that for I'm sorry they can only see slightly beyond their shoe tips. Good luck, cause they are making it worse, slooshing all those dallar digites around the world, where ever the "finger in the dike" requires the most plugging.
Get some values real money! No digitized gold at this website. Tonight it was the Japanese turn to hold the patient down You are so cool when you're hot dude!
Looking across the pond at Evian I see several "emperor's with no clothes". Chirac, Schroder, Putin and Bush are all a bunch of "morons".
And nice to see the plan is to stabalize the dollar. I guess what Bush really told them was 'they' better get their act together and save the almighty dollar or ALL would be going down the toilet.
One must seriously wonder if Bush deserves the 'arrogant cowboy' aka moron label but now the rumor for the 'other 4' is the 'spineless wonders'.
I put an offer in on a house that has an oil furnace urban setting rather than the usual NG furnace. I thought that this might be a good thing the oil furnace that is.
Maybe you answer might simply say "My next house given the choice of oil or gas would be XXX" Thanks amigo, have a golden day. USUK is occupying Iraq but at present, still far from controlling 50 years of future oil-flow!
Don't sell the bear's skin before Watch how the dollar evolves and see how the POO corresponds. The major "trends" are and will remain in place: A US-dollar in the process of losing its "use" utility There is only but one problem: Everything will become more and more subordinate to this main problem.
The dollar going out as the oil-currency and replaced by the euro-gold standard. As long as one keeps believing in the dollar as we have known that reserve-currency for many decades now Find a 30 yrs chart of dollar-yen and see what can happen with ones currency.
Dollar-paper-gold can be maneuvered down, anytime, with the Bernanke-confetti! I remain convinced that Arabian oil, in particular, doesn't want the dollar as a "partner" anymore!?
See how the US keeps on flirting with Russia. Russia, China and Euroland are drifting away from the dollar! I don't see what event could change this process.
In recent decades, Asian central banks and investors have lent trillions of U. As a result, the Asian countries, which form the wheelhouse of the global economic machine, now have "the problem.
Consequently, they're poised to issue "cross-border" debt instruments in their own currencies, essentially putting the rest of the world on notice that they no longer consider the United States as the sole safe haven for storing the considerable fruits of their financial success.
While it may sound innocuous, the possibility of such a move represents nothing less than a "massive hammer poised above the U. For the past decades, the world had no choice but to support and accept the dollar as currency AND as a reserve!
Capital AND trade flows can and do change away from the dollar-block. It is up to the dollar to set its house in order.
ALL go down the toilet? I need ONE good reason for "believing" in the dollar-reserve's survival I have been informed that you can burn biodiesel in a oil burning furnace I've used both fuels over many years.
Here's some of my thoughts. Economics have favored NG in the past but that may change as BB has forecasted. I think it's likely that the energy equivalent prices of oil and gas will tend to equalize after spikes in one or the other.
This is because there are many dual fuel users such as industrial and utility boiler operators who can switch or convert with minor modifications.
On the other hand oil is easier to import. It would be wise to check the current fuel prices in the locality to see what the differences are.
Another factor in favor of NG is that the newer high efficiency gas furnaces can sqeeze more btu's from the same gas. This is done by condensing the moisture in the combustion gases and using that heat to preheat the incoming combustion air.
Replacing and older low efficiency oil or gas furnace probably makes sense. As for the quality and cleanliness of the heat there isn't much difference if you're looking at forced air systems in both fuel cases.
Oil furnaces tend to require more maintenence because they need a high pressure oil pump and burner tips that require periodic cleaning.
Also, there is a little more noise from the turbulent flame in an oil furnace than the laminar flow flame in a gas furnace.
One thing you should also check is if there is an above ground or underground storage tank. If underground be aware that unseen tank leakage could have occured in the past or may in the future.
Hope this helps and pardon the off-topic subject Good Luck, Boilermaker. Bush said he was committed to a strong dollar but played down his influence over exchange rates when Group of Eight leaders discussed the currency's recent tumble in France on Monday Bush's remarks to other G8 leaders on were also relayed by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and several others.
Bush repeated he would prefer a stronger dollar if it were up to him, they said. He did not exclude market fluctuations," Berlusconi said after G8 leaders discussed economic prospects and exchange rates at morning talks in the French spa town of Evian.
A Canadian official told reporters: Just what the U. BIG changes ahead, euro cabal is no saint either. Hans Senholz on Gold Hans Senholz, on the subject of gold.
What he thinks about gold now is what he has thought about it for a very long time, but nevertheless, there are some new twists and nuances worth noting.
At the same time, for those new to the gold arena, the short essay below offers some very good grounding. Probably most salient is his thesis toward the end of the piece that the weakness in the dollar we are seeing now could be the beginnings of a 'crisis in confidence' which could 'precipitate the end of the dollar standard.
Recently, Congress officially upped that cap and, you guessed it, the national debt took off on a rocket trajectory Sounds like an echo of TreasSec Snow's comments from a couple of weeks ago.
After all that's been said, we're right back where we started We can speculate my good man but it seems clear that at least temporary resolve has been the order of the summit.
The dollar is firmer this morning and gold is down. I must emphasis the phrase 'temporary resolve' strongly.
I hope you have been catching my drift in several of latest posts. The theme being 'beggar thy neighbor', a. I would bet a dime that Mr. Bush has sucessfully arm-twisted the other members of the G-8 into believing, again on a temporary basis that the 'engine of growth' the USA a la S.
Roach must be revived or global growth will sputter and die. I am sure you are familiar with the passages of Mr. Again, as per one of my previous messages, we shall soon see if the ECB follows suit with rate cuts.
My guess is that Mr. Bush the 'Fed' has cozied up forced? Failing that neither will cut. The US with the 'balance in question' is not going to cut alone; the cut-cut, no-cut--no-cut scenario has been worked out behind closed doors.
My note to BB was to portray my disgust at the 8 clowns 'at the fair'. ALL fiat will fail and thus the currency of physical last resort will win the day.
I suggest to BUY precious coin, not sell!!! To you, I wish a golden day! Today's gold and dollar action indicates gold's volatility is now somewhat independent of the dollar.
Something seems to be up. It has stayed at the magic number for some days now. Come out, come out where ever you are.
Just trying to fit some numbers to the ideas. Taking Euroland reserves from latest ECB bulletin: Hence, the euro value of the above assets becomes: The question is how much does x have to rise by to maintain the total value of the assets constant in Euro terms.
Clearly, the ECB can tweak these values at the margin by selling dollars to buy gold or euros. One idea that interests me is 'dollar leasing'.
Just as central banks purportedly lease out gold while keeping it on their books as an asset, I wonder if they could not do the same with dollars - i.
This would be a covert way of getting rid of dollar holdings while maintaining appearances. Your thoughts regarding the necessary increase in gold reserves for Euroland, given a decline in the Euro value of dollars in the reserves, are interesting.
Why not try the same calculations on ECB reserves? I have not heard that the Euroland Central Banks, as a whole, are commited to this policy.
Is the next ECB report out after the 2nd quarter, i. Otherwise, the percentage of reserves in gold, would diminsh relative to the Euro value of holdings of dollar denominated reserves.
However, there is, to my knowledge, no commitment to avoid a decrease in general reserves. This depends on whether the fall of the dollar is compensated or not, by a rise in the Euro price of gold.
I hope I am mistaken! I am not confident it will be. The ECB has more reserves - via cooking the books - and the Euroland CB's keep their gold reserves via the simple expedient of counting gold receivables the same as physical gold.
Don't put anything past them! We are talking about things which are kept secret, by desperate people in a desperate situation. This is not conducive to realistic thinking and honest action.
Perhaps all the above is not clear; probably not. That's the way I see it. Bad news for the Euro! Guano from the GAB. Belgian said, "I need ONE good reason for "believing" in the dollar-reserve's survival However, even if my thoughts have one iota of convincing him to believe in the dollar-reserve, I would not hold him to his agreeing to sell his precious coins, EVER.
I still think he should keep them no matter what the economic issues are. Also, I don't pretend to have an in depth understanding of financial matters as do most of the posters on this site.
I don't post very often, mostly I try to learn and understand the issues being presented. So bear with me if my reply appears frivolous and elementary.
And do feel free to correct me in any of my misunderstandings of the issues. There is no assurance that the euro will maintain it's gold backing.
Ultimately, it's the same "Confederation! And as the "Confederation" can giveth, so also the "Confederation" can taketh. Gold is not, cannot, be denominated in pennies.
The US has a dollar, which is denominated in fractions. This allows people to buy a cent widget with a dollar and get 37 cents in change.
Gold does not have that ability. Gold cannot denominated in any amount, let alone a penny, and have that amount be maintained. Gold denominates itself according to economic conditions.
One could contemplate a gold and silver and copper currency system: But I don't understand how gold alone could be used as a currency in minor everyday transactions.
Again, I'm just a beginner, so do go easy if you decide to reply to my bold points. It appears the GAB has the same concerns as I do. Maybe I'm getting it!
There is a relatively small general reserve in the ECB, for the Euro. This reserve is only a small fraction of the "liability side" of the Euro.
A very small fraction! And even that is in doubt, according to my guano in the previous post. The world's monetary mess stinks and it will likely kill our civilization.
Get the physical gold and prepare for the worst. Royal guano from the GAB. Could it be that having the US tactics compared to the 3rd Reich are a bit tougher to forgive, or is it just a desire to stay apart so te press doesn't even ask?
A third option, Germany is actually in a recessionary near-deflation, so perhaps GWB doesn't want to publicly expose himself to what they've got, like it was some communicable disease?
Yes, you've understood my argument exactly. As for your point about running the same calculation on the ECB reserves - one could certainly do it and I'll try and find the relevant figures.
What I'm trying to get at, however and we can only get a rough feel for the truth here is where the price of gold has to go to keep Europe's financial system happy in the face of a revaluing euro.
On this basis, I think that you have to look at the overall reserves of Euroland, since at the end of the day, this is what is backing the Euroeconomy.
A lot of people write about the Euro as if it is a new currency. I view it as an extension of an old currency, consisting of the DM, the Guilder which was pegged to the DM and the French Franc which, once it had adjusted its parities by the early s, settled into a reasonably tight peg to the DM.
While there was nothing on the scale of the Euro prior to its launch, I know lots of non-German, non-Swiss investors who were happy to hold their wealth in DM or ChFr for decades.
Looking at the ECB is like looking at the balance sheet of the parent company for a large industrial group. To understand the whole, you have to look at the consolidated balance sheet, since depending on corporate strategy, the reserves may be at parent level or distributed throughout the subsidiaries.
It may be that these figures are misleading, but since many people have advanced the argument that POG is a macroeconomic adjustment variable, I'm just trying to get a feel for where POG has to go to compensate for slides in the dollar, and looking at European reserves gives you one answer, just as looking at other countries' reserves will give you others.
Randy often publishes these numbers although I have had a difficult time reconciling this figures. I think someone had thought about putting together a spreadsheet to monitor the Euro reserve and gold fractions thereof going back to the inception of the currency.
I have not seen this or similiar charts. Your post also interests me from the point of view of US reserves which I understand are principally gold.
Thanks for the note, have a golden day. Sir Sundeck and Sir Goldendome!! She can be reached at marie usagold.
These Two Essays are by: Sir Boilermaker and The Hopple!! I was just wondering why? I can't imagine what you can have noticed.
It's not as though I had taken a sovereign out of my pocket and was studying it. When you first lowered the papers to your lap, you gazed at the photograph on the wall which you took when you lived in Australia in your youth.
You were thinking either of photography or of something from your days in 'Oz', as I think they call it. Oz is quite a different story.
The next subject of your gaze was the teapot. What, I asked myself, does a teapot have in common with the wet collodion process? The answer is obvious: Was the teapot just a tangent into precious metals in general?
I watched carefully, and observed you feeling with your tongue at that large gold filling you have recently had in a tooth. And then you shook your head in just the same way as you did when you lamented the cost of that filling.
Ergo, the price of gold. H G Wells says that they came back to him in his Time Machine from years in the future. They come from something called the "Inter Net" and relate to a contest in which people attempt to predict the future price of gold.
Wells is not at all clear. I suspect Wells's fertile imagination rather than a real example of time travel. But the problem is interesting enough.
From the very nature of the question, I presume that the gold standard has not lasted until this year Which seems strange to me.
The gold standard seems to be spreading all over the World. Even India, that bastion of silver coinage, adopted a gold standard two years ago.
The United States is the only great power still using both silver and gold standards. William Jennings Bryan has his way, they too will adopt a gold standard soon.
But a major war could blow that asunder. At least, it could if John Keynes is right. Who is John Keynes? A quite astonishingly precocious schoolboy.
I'll just light a pipe before I read. Wells tells me that in this future time, people are not allowed to smoke in public. You'll be telling me that they have banned cocaine next.
At last, he put his pipe down, and looked at me. There would seem to be two major factors that will affect the price of gold that summer. One is War and the other is Politics.
Supply is stable and well-known, so that won't have an impact in such a short time. And the Economies of the great powers appear to be in a mess, so the gold price is rising steadily as that mess becomes more and more apparent.
But War and Politics could change everything in a period of three months. Take the United States for instance, since so many of the letters come from people living there.
The War Between the States -- or whatever we are now supposed to call it -- was disastrous for the economy, particularly of the Confederacy. But the perennial squabbles in the Balkans have done wonders for the sale of Mr.
The real disaster of the War Between the States was the death of so many brave young men. Yes, indeed, the human cost is the greatest cost.
But we cannot ignore the economic results. Particularly when there are people who exploit them. A country whose industries are undamaged -- and particularly a country like the United States, which is geared to responding to needs in the marketplace -- will benefit from that.
And I'm not thinking of war profiteering. Quite ordinary industries, making weighing scales, or gas mantles, or telegraph machines, will receive a boost to their sales -- a boost which will trickle down to the rest of the economy.
Elected politicians, such as the President of the United States, and our own Prime Minister, want their voters to feel that the economy is doing well.
Partly of course, they want the economy to be doing well in actual fact -- that's why they went into politics -- but little more than a twelvemonth before a US presidential election, there will be a focus on the perception as well.
Which again will ease the pressure on the gold price. If you must have a single number, then let it be 80 pounds. What rate should I use for the conversion?
A pound is pence; four shillings and sixpence ha'penny is So eighty pounds is divided by That's a rather bearish view. Maybe I am giving more credence to market manipulation than to market forces.
But my experience of crime leads me that way. Some of the greatest criminals in London, far worse than the late Professor Moriarty, are those who not only exploit war but even foster war so that they can exploit it.
And these criminals are all too often welcomed into our highest society because of their wealth. But we mustn't get dragged into depression by Wells's little game.
Why should a contest in the early 21st century use money from the late 19th century? Have they no reliable money of their own?
That is the question? Technical Approach From a simple technical standpoint, one can apply at least two approaches: Extrapolate the primary up-trend in POG that has endured for the last two years.
How much faith can one put in this result? Let's look first at the "scree slope" of the USDX. Isn't a scree slope the gradient of the accumulated loose rocks at the base of an eroding mesa?
Sure, but a well-defined and enduring slope results nonetheless! The principal "emergent property" from piling up rocks and sand.
So it is with the US dollar. They are impossible to measure or predict individually, but a stunning property emerges - a characteristic down-trend in the USDX, that persists for as long as the basic ingredients stay the same.
I am assuming that the basic ingredients stay the same until September 1. I am reassured because major "scree slopes" in the USDX over the past 30 years have persisted for several years and this one has only been going for a year-and-a-half and looks like being a beauty!
How about the up-trend in the POG? Pretty much the same deal. Unless there is a major seismic shift between now and September we can expect the trend to continue.
But you never know and it is impossible to predict. But let's have a go anyway. What does one regard as "fundamental" in pricing gold? The decline in the dollar is probably pretty well locked in.
It might be moderated a little by the EU and other countries lowering interest rates before September, but that is likely to be offset by another cut in US rates.
Hence the slide is on for quite a while. The US rate cut will probably be 50 basis points and that will encourage another round of house refinancings and ensure that the big bond bull is kept alive for at least the next three months.
Some money may even flow back into shares, but the historical sequence of equity market corrections augurs strongly for a major sell-off before September.
Also, while a rate cut will encourage US nationals to stay in the housing and bond markets, it will have the opposite effect on international traders who are already seeing their profits from bonds turn strongly negative from low interest rates and foreign exchange losses.
Their interest in the housing sector may remain, but they would be concerned about its teetering top-heaviness and liquidity concerns should it fail.
We haven't mentioned other "fundamentals", like supply and demand. Take supply first, and that is relatively easy I think.
New mine production will go on much the same and there probably will not be any dramatic change in the current trends by miners to reduce forward sales and close out some of their hedged positions.
The Washington Agreement is still in effect. Activity outside that accord will probably continue to see net acquisition, rather than net disbursement of gold reserves.
The US position on gold is as unclear as ever, but the bias will continue to be away from leasing and more towards covering exposed positions.
Recycling of scrap will probably go on as normal. Well, that is where the uncertainty lies. Few would deny that gold as an investment and preserve of wealth has received increasing publicity in the last twelve months.
Accessibility to gold investments of one form or another is increasing. Gold is probably entering portfolios with renewed confidence and the talk amongst "people in the know" is of a sustained, long-term bull market in gold.
Bull markets being what they are, one would expect some "irrational exuberance" along the way, but how much of this will occur before 1 September?
Also, "fear" has not set in yet in the equity markets and the "Greenspan put" will probably stave off that phenomenon for a while yet.
Demand will continue to ramp up in China. In India, although the wedding season will be ending by September, many dealers may be wary of a runaway in the price of gold before next year.
I therefore suspect that seasonal demand may not slacken as much as normal. What about "demand shocks"?
China revaluing or floating its currency? Terrorist attack in the US? Maybe, but God forbid. Major bank failures in Japan? Major US bullion bank caught short?
Not much talk of that lately, but the risk is probably still there. Very real possibility if Mr. Bush and his colleagues cannot get the economy moving in time.
Yes, some premium might appear in the gold price from that contingency before September, but probably not much.
Where does that leave us on the fundamentals? Better than Fed-speak, but still not very clear. The dollar also rises to its highest level in four months against the Yen.
The Dow Jones sheds points on the troubling news to ; Kudlow and Cramer claim the market will surge back once the true nature of the "bluster" is understood.
The last two weeks of June saw a choppy but steady rise in the gold price as the dollar continued its swoon against foreign currencies.
The USDI fell to Rumors of problems developing in the financial markets with currency and interest rate spreads moving to adverse extremes against several large unnamed financial institutions, but rumored to be located in New York, Germany, and Japan.
By July 4th, several congressional, as well as United Nations' meetings had taken place to discuss the Korean situation.
All agreed on one thing--Now was the time for talk. President Bush also chose this historic occasion to talk by television to the American people.
Telling us all again, how we have always stood in times of trouble to defend freedom, whenever it was threatened. Well, that was clear enough.
He continued, "We must first sit down with the North Koreans, in an attempt to voice our concern. Therefore, the United States will open dialog with representatives of the North Korean government as soon a possible [something we had previously said we would not do unilaterally] to bring lasting Peace and Stability to the region.
Later in the week the first estimate of second quarter growth was released showing a GDP up-tick of 2. At about this time, no one knows for sure but the decision maker Alan Greenspan, stepping out of character, decided to make a guest appearance on "Larry King Live".
Don't ask me why, only he knows that answer. Although publicly supported for re-appointment by the President, some said it was the first stop on Al's "farewell tour".
Anyway, the guest appearance was on Thursday, July 24th. A record audience tuned in to see "The Maestro" and fellow market crooner, Louis Rukyser exchange notes with "Mr.
The audience that night saw their beloved Chairman, Mr. Greenspan, "live" as never before; he was witty; he was even comically engaging, exchanging clips with "Rukey", and acting almost giddy at the economies recently reported performance.
At a point near the show's end. King looked perplexed, pondering the comments meaning, as if thinking and wishing to say: Here are those three, yucking it up, like a bunch of drunken frat brothers at a fifty-year reunion.
They should have shown a little more concern for the poor folks that lost all their money in the Markets. The following day, the markets gave their assessment of "The Maestro's" performance--Two thumbs down!
Shedding nearly all of the post 4th of July rally and ending at on the Dow. News of a new record trade deficit, and a record slump in auto sales helped to push down the Chairman's scores.
Outside of the USA Gold Forum's vigilant membership, few were aware that the Comptroller of the Currency, in a highly unusual move, had swooped in to examine both of New York's largest banks simultaneously.
Obviously though, some gold traders had also taken note. At the end of the day, Greenspan said that he used a poor choice of words, when referring to "prosperity," but had felt a little light-headed at the time.
Both Rookies and King said they couldn't explain it either, but both said they had felt almost "high" during the television broadcast. After reviewing tape of the show, all three, it was noticed, were drinking much more liberally than would normally be expected, from their French bottled waters.
The bottles were located and sure enough, tested positive for a mild hallucinogenic drug. Tom Ridge declared it, "An act of financial terrorism. On August 4th, The one-month anniversary of the President's "Let's sit down with the North Koreans speech," They abruptly said all talks were off They did not trust the United States They were armed and well prepared for war They as a sovereign nation would decide their future They welcomed support in the name of freedom from any country willing to stand against the United States.
The following day Iran and Syria both issued support for North Korea and admitted having nuclear weaponry--nothing more than that.
Within a day, Israel sealed its borders and declared that any provocation was a act of war. Russia's Vladimir Putin spoke in Paris.
Only the United States can prevent it. Gold futures lock-limited up three consecutive days. A spokes man said, "because of computer tampering and the necessity to protect traders from the unscrupulousness of speculators.
I wasn't watching them that much, but they crashed to about 6, on the Dow within days, and kept heading South.
The news of financial insolvencies and the inability of market makers and banks to meet obligations now were causing the public to "run" from the markets and banks.
The FDIC had joined in the New York bank investigations and stated that a congressional "pay out" might be needed to meet legal mandates in certain situations.
Rumsfeld must have seen his face reflected in the new foreign enemies and blinked. He demanded, "The United Nations must act!
This from the new town Marshall, who only months before had been looking for new gunslingers to blast? The world froze for two weeks. The USDI plummeted to Then at 8 A.
The device, believed to be aboard one of the many luxury yachts in the area, leveled the beachfront Hotel Strip and immediately killed and estimated , people.
The following day, Monday, none of the markets opened-nor did they open for the remainder of the month.
I visited the local trader in my small town. He figured physical gold at somewhere around a thousand dollars and ounce, but he didn't know for sure--didn't seem to care.
Nothing seemed to matter now. I don't even know if you'd get your money. And even if you did, you might not want it after a while. Because gold's probably just going to keep going up But this is not a time for celebration with the markets in disarray.
The Administration and all of Washington is in full panic deployment. No one could have predicted the financial devastation and fallout that began when the former head of security at the Fort Knox Gold Repository revealed that "large quantities of gold bars" had been shipped out of the facility over the past several years to unknown destinations.
This former employee who was under oath to maintain secrecy about all aspects of the depository had become intrigued with several of the internet gold sites where the buzz in recent years has been about the alleged manipulation and suppression of the price of gold to create the illusion of a "strong dollar".
It was June 16th when Robert Smith, a year government employee of several different agencies wrote to his Congressman, Ron Paul of Texas, and revealed the ongoing reduction of the gold in our largest National Gold Repository.
Miller suggested that it was part of the effort to subdue gold and brace the dollar. Interviewed on several financial news outlets, Miller made a convincing case for the allegations and got the attention of investors around the world.
Congressman Paul, himself a gold advocate, demanded an audit by Treasury that would be overseen by a congressional delegation.
At first the Administration dug in their heels, denied the charges and refused the audit. But like Watergate, the denials only brought more criticism and pressure to reveal the truth.
The media, at first not much interested in the story, became fully involved as the financial markets began to react violently to the allegations.
The Administration, seeing the futility of further denials, finally confirmed on July 25th that shipments of gold from Fort Knox had occurred as part of a long-term program to reduce the US gold reserve.
The financial community was caught off guard by this sudden revelation and there was instant chaos in the gold markets that quickly spread to currencies, commodities, stocks, derivatives and even interest rates.